NCAA football 2010 - Page 21 -

ATX · #**601** 10-23-2009, 05:54 PM

yep, sitting behind a screen 60+ hours a week isn't the greatest. it's one of the reasons I started betting fewer games and one of the reasons all this talk of getting "the best of the number..." yeah, give up your whole life to get the best of every number.

Army +11 for 1.1%

Iceman RX · #**602** 10-23-2009, 06:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX

yep, sitting behind a screen 60+ hours a week isn't the greatest. it's one of the reasons I started betting fewer games and one of the reasons all this talk of getting "the best of the number..." yeah, give up your whole life to get the best of every number.

Army +11 for 1.1%

It's not at all the "glamorus" lifestyle that so many think it is or would be. People don't realize the actual hours one must put into this. It's by no means an easier lifestyle time wise then a "real" job, I have learned. That is if you want to do things "right". One thing I always tell others is to top it off you can work all week and not only not get paid for all your hard work but you actually can (and do many times) LOSE money for the week.

Really admire your confidence in all this more then anything. You seem to back it up every year, in every sport, right here on the forums for all too see. I couldn't or wouldn't want to do deal with that. Major props to you for that.

This is why I hope you around this NBA season. I have really upped the ante on my end of late. Would like to build on what I was able to learn from your excellent NBA thread last year and apply it again on my own. Have known very few in the forum world that can or even try to beat the NBA. Hoping to be able bounce some things off you from time to time this season if your around.

Also played Army for tonight. Little surprised this number hasn't dropped from it's opening number (in fact it has went up a tad). More then anything this is a play against Rutgers being a DD favorite on the road. They are almost +12 in turnovers this year and have only played one road game all year. All these breaks and they haven't looked all that good, IMO (covering only 1 out of their 6 games). And to think they were actually -5 week 1 this year against Cincinnatti.

I agreed with you on most all of your stuff this weekend. Only one I hadn't played was ULM and that is because I am not sure how they play without their starting QB. Either way you got the best of it with a +18. Really like the Auburn play the most. It' one of my bigger plays this weekend.

Good luck and keep up the great work (and interesting read). It's really appreciated by many!!

(Sorry about the length of this. You probably remember I like to write lengthy comments. Working hard on cutting things down, LOL.)

Stabler12 · #**603** 10-24-2009, 09:06 AM

I'm in Oakland for the Raiders-Jets game. Checking in and wanted to wish Ice and ATX the best of luck this week. Only showing 9 plays so far and will try to look again later. Going to sightsee SF with my 10-year old daughter (avatar) for the day.

rollotemaci · #**604** 10-24-2009, 10:36 AM

could you please list all the college football plays for today

ATX · #**605** 10-26-2009, 04:52 PM

good post Ice.

I enjoy the sports threads. I hope to be back. I don't know when. could be tomorrow, could be a month...nothing to do with sports betting.

I guess the best thing to say is...everyone goes through pain. heck, the sports threads got me through some difficult times, it's what I'm used to doing. at present, just opening ogd9 is reminding me, it's causing pain.

thanks for the kind words from those of you. not that I deserve them.

ATX · #**606** 10-29-2009, 08:37 PM

wow

really missed out on NC,
that line was shocking to me, so off IMO that I liked it too much

I'm going back to another style: the "before football starts" thread type.

bang 3-5 a day.

ATX · #**607** 10-29-2009, 08:39 PM

I just want to chill out, play some poker for a while but Michigan even at -7 just really jumps out. have the Illini simply quit?

ATX · #**608** 11-02-2009, 05:52 PM

Nebraska +6 over OU for 1.5%

Iceman RX · #**609** 11-02-2009, 08:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX

Nebraska +6 over OU for 1.5%

That's what I like to hear!!!

I told a buddy of mine earlier that Nebarska was one of my top 3 plays so far this week at the openers along with Colordao St (who it seems I like every week) and Oregon, who I am not so sure I like yet but I feel the line will rise quite a bit (I got it at -5) and possibily going through the 7 by gameday.

ATX · #**610** 11-02-2009, 08:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX

Nebraska +6 over OU for 1.5%

I think it might close 7 maybe 7'. I might not look at ncaa football again this week. this line should be 4 max.

Wake Forest +15 for 1.3%
I would guess it should close 13, but not the 11 that would make it a pass.

ATX · #**611** 11-02-2009, 08:52 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iceman RX

That's what I like to hear!!!

I told a buddy of mine earlier that Nebarska was one of my top 3 plays so far this week at the openers along with Colordao St (who it seems I like every week) and Oregon, who I am not so sure I like yet but I feel the line will rise quite a bit (I got it at -5) and possibily going through the 7 by gameday.

Colorado State caught my eye. Nebraska covers +6 or pushes over 60% of the time in this situation.

romanowski · #**612** 11-04-2009, 10:58 AM

on nebraska with you....any thoughts on idaho?...clemson?

ATX · #**613** 11-04-2009, 02:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by romanowski

on nebraska with you....any thoughts on idaho?...clemson?

I like Idaho.

ATX · #**614** 11-05-2009, 10:48 AM

Idaho +8 for 1.3%

ATX · #**615** 11-05-2009, 10:48 AM

Navy +11 for 1.5%

Iceman RX · #**616** 11-05-2009, 12:26 PM

Like Navy also. I played Idaho at the open myself.

You can feel the numbers really tighten up this week in cfb.

Houstons feels square against Tulsa but I can't see why not to play them. Colorado st, Bama, Oregon, Oregon St just a few off the top of my head I played.

Anything tonight? Played Va Tech -12.5 at open and under 49.5 in the N Ill game and Miami Ohio plus +18.

ATX · #**617** 11-05-2009, 12:57 PM

I like Miami OH. I like ECAR but looks like a trap somehow...oh well.

ECAR +13.5 for 1.1%

ATX · #**618** 11-05-2009, 03:49 PM

Miami Ohio +17.5 for 1.1%
might get a few 18's but most likely a move to 16'

ATX · #**619** 11-06-2009, 12:10 PM

Louisiana Tech +21 for 1.1%
ML +1000 for .3% stranger things have happened, LT is not that bad of a team

LT 1st quarter ML +300 for .4%

Stabler12 · #**620** 11-07-2009, 01:25 AM

Great work the last few days, I've been a little short on time, but congrats.

Stabler12 · #**621** 11-08-2009, 08:49 AM

Rode a nice 2-1 train yesterday, (skipped Nebraska because the line dropped) thanks again.

ATX · #**622** 11-08-2009, 05:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stabler12

Great work the last few days, I've been a little short on time, but congrats.

no prob. just cruising. last year, when I had the same big win streak I got a little paranoid that a losing streak was inevitable. now, I've come to the realization that my win % is what it is. I have zero doubt going forward, and I'm bored.

Iceman RX · #**623** 11-09-2009, 09:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ATX

no prob. just cruising. last year, when I had the same big win streak I got a little paranoid that a losing streak was inevitable. now, I've come to the realization that my win % is what it is. I have zero doubt going forward, and I'm bored.

Nice problems to have, LOL.

I wished I was more like that but know I have a long ways to go. Instead I am more a worse case scenairo type guy.

I even keep meticouls records more so I can look back and say to myself "you win over X amount of games, be patient, everything is going to be fine, etc". Meaning that no matter what happens I still find myself worrying about "what if".

I think the best way to handle things for someone with a large enough bankroll, who wants to do this for a living and eliminate most of the stress and risk, is to play to a 200 unit bankroll and that is something I am hoping to do one day soon. Meaning on average playing one half of one pct per play. Sure you would be cutting into your bankroll growth but I would think you have to be pretty bad to lose a quarter or even half your bankroll playing that low. I don't recall ever losing 50% of my bankroll over a stretch playing 1% per play.

Not trying to second guess or question what you are doing, just suggesting some different things. You say you are bored you ever think about betting more plays per day or maybe looking into other challenges by looking at other sports to cap? I know this sounds dumb, why fix something that isn't broken but was just throwing that out there for you.

Though I am nowhere near that feeling, I have thought many times what if? Meaning what does one do when this is over, when the challenge of growing a bankroll is no longer there? I really like the mental challenge capping and betting brings. I am not sure anymore if it's because it is sports that I like cause I really don't watch any of the games or is more a numbers thing and trying to solve the puzzle that makes this enjoyable. I know it's not because I like to gamble as I have been in Vegas over a year now and I have seriously not played a single dollar in a slot, played no blakcjack, roulette, nothing and have absoultely no desire to either.

ATX · #**624** 11-12-2009, 04:54 PM

Miami Ohio +4.5 for 1.1%

ATX · #**625** 11-13-2009, 12:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Iceman RX

Nice problems to have, LOL.

I wished I was more like that but know I have a long ways to go. Instead I am more a worse case scenairo type guy.

I even keep meticouls records more so I can look back and say to myself "you win over X amount of games, be patient, everything is going to be fine, etc". Meaning that no matter what happens I still find myself worrying about "what if".

I think the best way to handle things for someone with a large enough bankroll, who wants to do this for a living and eliminate most of the stress and risk, is to play to a 200 unit bankroll and that is something I am hoping to do one day soon. Meaning on average playing one half of one pct per play. Sure you would be cutting into your bankroll growth but I would think you have to be pretty bad to lose a quarter or even half your bankroll playing that low. I don't recall ever losing 50% of my bankroll over a stretch playing 1% per play.

Not trying to second guess or question what you are doing, just suggesting some different things. You say you are bored you ever think about betting more plays per day or maybe looking into other challenges by looking at other sports to cap? I know this sounds dumb, why fix something that isn't broken but was just throwing that out there for you.

Though I am nowhere near that feeling, I have thought many times what if? Meaning what does one do when this is over, when the challenge of growing a bankroll is no longer there? I really like the mental challenge capping and betting brings. I am not sure anymore if it's because it is sports that I like cause I really don't watch any of the games or is more a numbers thing and trying to solve the puzzle that makes this enjoyable. I know it's not because I like to gamble as I have been in Vegas over a year now and I have seriously not played a single dollar in a slot, played no blakcjack, roulette, nothing and have absoultely no desire to either.

I can play blackjack for maybe 5 minutes, then I'm bored with it. I'd rather watch a date or somebody else play, they get more excitement out of it. I was aggressive in the beginning with about 12K BR in 97. I pretty much just bet Big12 football and a few national games and hit over 70% on very selective plays. I assumed 70% was possible, consistently, back then. I still do, BUT on very, very select plays. In other words, there are 70% events out there at -110 or less. enough about that. that is when I'll put over 3% on an event. I found the forums around 99, my ideas that this was an actual market were met with ridicule and harsh criticism. But the winning never stopped, most of my absurd theories proven with varying degrees of accuracy. My BR exploded. I was betting 3-5% on NFL and NCAA football and increased BR almost 300% one year when I added NBA and college baskets. In a three year period gross profit was over +500%. 2003 was rough for NCAA football for me, I think I lost a little but it was close, added MLB. I made over 25% and got every side of the World Series right with a LOCK on Marlins at +200 and -1.5 +300ish in game 6. My average bet size was about .5% since I'd never bet it before. I ended up over +25% which was insane. I had two or three losing weeks in MLB that year betting about 10-15 games a day.

from 2003 to 2007ish I was betting an avg of 25 events per day. easily 70-80 hours a week. during basketball there were times when I'd have 100 bets in a 24 hour period, with 2nd halves and a million NCAA basketball games going off. I've never used a database much. I am adept at recognizing value and have several angles that win every year, they are based on correlations between quantitative and qualitative factors tied into skewed market pricing, the key is strength of correlation. when I started my whole concept was volume, anything with value, and to bet LOCKS very strong around 2.2% or so, and then add value bets at lower amounts ranging from 1.1% to .6% or so. subsets. if a subset performed poorly I would investigate, in other words I would drop the smaller bets if they did badly and lessen the LOCKS if they went bad. neither happened over time. around 2007 I realized that after a massive run, I tended to start running poorly, started giving some back, so I developed the model I have now which is geared toward returning about 20% in each league. I rarely suffer through prolonged losing streaks, times of variance. I can't remember the last time I lost 3 days in a row, and that is what I'm up against on 11/13 (and I will emerge victorious today). Do I stop once I get to 20%? not usually. I did last year during the Bowl games for the most part on a hunch as the dogs didn't do well early on in the Bowls on a system that has netted a ton. I usually just reduce the amount of bets and only bet something 58% or better. This summer I took a lot of time off and just bet some UFC and had a nice run of baseball totals in the "Before Football" thread to pay for my summer festivities. I'm probably done after the Superbowl, but may continue sporadically with my new, easy, non-time consuming "3-5 per day" system. No more 40 hour weeks. In 3-4 hours or less I can find 3-5 and all that previous work ensures my ability to be able to step out and step back in with little research or drop-off in performance. In fact, after a short break, my percentage usually rises substantially in the short term and the reason for that is things appear a lot more black and white, data overload grays the lines and that's the problem with 2nd halves. I have to watch the games and although 2nd halves have been profitable, they cause fatigue and a bit of psychological trauma when viewing 2h meltdowns such as ATL/NY and CHI/ATL.

La Lafayette +14 for 1.3%