Nba 2009-2010

[ATX]

Memphis +1.5 for 1.1%

[ATX]

SAC/OKC under 203.5 for 1.5%
worst run in over 5 years, timewise. up for the season but last few weeks have been awful. I look for reasons, not excuses, and the only thing that I can say is that I have quite a few one point losses and several games I went with the under instead of the points and vice versa. seems like teams are scoring more and the parity is less between the teams than usual but I'm usually on top of that. 3 or 4 really bad days, not a whole lot of volume. not sure if I need another break or if it's variance, I guess the worst part is the apathy. this one won't lose though. or probably not.

[Stabler12]

Variance is a bitch, X. If the posted plays are all you're betting, then it's a bad run. If you play more often and only post when you have time, it's all to chance. I stopped checking in every day when I saw you were experiencing apathy and weren't around daily. You know what you're doing and it's only a matter of time before you get hot again. Don't know if I'll see it, but I know it's coming.

[ATX]

Originally Posted by Stabler12

Variance is a bitch, X. If the posted plays are all you're betting, then it's a bad run. If you play more often and only post when you have time, it's all to chance. I stopped checking in every day when I saw you were experiencing apathy and weren't around daily. You know what you're doing and it's only a matter of time before you get hot again. Don't know if I'll see it, but I know it's coming.

I probably post about 75% of everything. It's kinda dumb for me to talk about what isn't posted, but I did have a little success with those. I'm not winning over the last 6 weeks, not even close. Fond memories of the college bowl season with so many dogs hitting. Since...I've had bad days before, a lot of them. I don't remember having a time period this long of such pure futility. There is a big difference. I'm not sure that I have much of an advantage this NBA year, I sure haven't proven it recently, anyways. At least I have money management so ingrained that I don't even talk about it any more. Usually during bad stretches I think in terms of how long will it take to get it back. Right now, I'm not convinced that I'll get it back. Ok, I'm lying. Over a sample size of 5 figures a stretch of less than 3 figures is somewhat arbitrary. But that doesn't really mean shit going forward. After a huge football season I guess I should look at the sum of the parts, but that doesn't have a whole hell of a lot to do with the future. I don't doubt that I will win again, but typing isn't really bringing any answers to the surface. time to go back to underdog status, build and blast. it was fun being arrogant and backing it up for a while, I just wanted to prove a point and show that it's possible to win consistently. I think it's also important to show how to pull out of a nosedive. I'm sure people like Ice will agree.

[ATX]

Washington +13 over Boston for 1.1%

[ATX]

PORT/DEN under 206.5 for 1.3%
at 207 for 1.5%

[ATX]

Detroit +2 over Houston for 1.1%

[ATX]

2h Port/Den under 104 for .7%

[ATX]

2h SA/CLE over 92 for .7%

[Stabler12]

That second half over system you mentioned a while back is now 32-20 since I started tracking/playing it.

[Iceman RX]

Originally Posted by Stabler12

That second half over system you mentioned a while back is now 32-20 since I started tracking/playing it.

what is it?

[Stabler12]

Whenever a halftime score is trending more than 20 points below the total, you play over the 2H total. A 200 point total with a halftime score of 45-44 would be an example.

[ATX]

I've missed a few here and there but early game (weekends) 1st half under has been hitting as well. (PHI/TOR Sun). I doubt it loses blind going forward. I wrote an article on the theoretical correlation a few weeks ago. WHIP3 dogs are worth a little bit blind until appx the last month of the season, I haven't had a chance yet to distribute and isolate a few of the other variables, though.

[ATX]

2h Dallas 3rd q -5.5 -105 for .8%

[Stabler12]

Originally Posted by ATX

I've missed a few here and there but early game (weekends) 1st half under has been hitting as well. (PHI/TOR Sun). I doubt it loses blind going forward. I wrote an article on the theoretical correlation a few weeks ago. WHIP3 dogs are worth a little bit blind until appx the last month of the season, I haven't had a chance yet to distribute and isolate a few of the other variables, though.

Those 1H unders would be for day games, I realize, but what would be the cutoff? 3:00 local time? Would the visitors' time zone matter? Also, I'd like to know what a WHIP3 dog is? sorry for all the ?'s, but with my success using the 2H overs, I'd like to delve into some of this also. Thanks.

[ATX]

Originally Posted by Stabler12

Those 1H unders would be for day games, I realize, but what would be the cutoff? 3:00 local time? Would the visitors' time zone matter? Also, I'd like to know what a WHIP3 dog is? sorry for all the ?'s, but with my success using the 2H overs, I'd like to delve into some of this also. Thanks.

my general stance is I bet almost all the 11am or 12noon 1st half unders, I look at the games to determine how much. For the games that start later, the 3pm EST games, I look at those and sometimes pass. Being more a night hawk myself, I think it's fair to assume the NBA players tend to be b/c that is when they usually play. The big question is whether the early starts affect offense or defense more. The way I see it...the status quo is the ball does not go in the hoop without a fair amount of successful effort. The score will tend to remain 0-0 in a game unless something changes so that tends to favor the under. The answer is probably that the early starts affect both offense and defense, maybe similarly and since teams shoot an average of less than 50% then that is going to favor the under. Now for the way out in leftfield comment...maybe it affects the refs as well. Status quo would be for them to be tired which would make them more lazy, and that would provide for fewer whistles because that requires effort. My conclusion was that the players have answered the question. Finding the reason is secondary, but important in isolating random variance going forward and that it should continue but one must keep an eye out for changes. Whip3 are MLB dogs and faves to -110 or so in which the starting pitcher has a better WHIP over the last 3 than the opponent's. I played these on the alt runline as well. I went over a lot of private messages and emails from years ago and there were enough of these that I played to make it look like a fairly solid angle. I didn't play it blind, but some years almost. Last year seemed to be an off year for it, but it still did OK.

[Stabler12]

Thanks for all the info, X. I would like to chart the 12 noon or 1:00 start times (local time) in the NBA. This would include playoffs, or does the motivation outweigh the fatigue factor? The WHIP dogs would not start until 3 starts obviously, but is that an immediate go? Or, do you wait until a certain date? Thanks again.

[ATX]

Originally Posted by Stabler12

Thanks for all the info, X. I would like to chart the 12 noon or 1:00 start times (local time) in the NBA. This would include playoffs, or does the motivation outweigh the fatigue factor? The WHIP dogs would not start until 3 starts obviously, but is that an immediate go? Or, do you wait until a certain date? Thanks again.

I'm not sure about the early game playoff starts to be honest. I generally handle the playoffs somewhat differently than the regular season. In the playoffs I am always looking to go under (defense usually trumps) unless the situation calls for an over (two unders in a row on horrible shooting and too big of an adjustment etc) but I generally nickle and dime overs that I feel strongly about while really hitting unders a lot heavier that I feel strongly about. The NBA playoffs for me are usually my favorite time of year. It's hard to make blanket statements, but a lot of "fatigue" is from 7 game series for one team vs a 5 or less game rested team from another. I look for a big bet in the 2nd game from the rested team if the situation arises (in game 1 it's often a feeling out process with game 2 more about adjustments). The playoffs is more about numbers than angles, my visualization has been very good in the NBA playoffs, especially in the Finals going back to the 76ers upset of the Lakers in game 1 a long, long time ago in a galaxy far, far away. I had the Pistons ML over the Lakers for that series, fond memories of Duncan hitting a meaningless bucket at the buzzer for a huge middle against the Nets, and taking the Spurs to win exactly 4-2 at big odds in their 2nd playoff series onward. 2005 was good, 2006 wasn't great with the Mavs choking, and 2007 was too short to make a whole lot on the series, but I learned from that and put it to use last year. 2008 was a big money making Finals as well. That is history, but I hope it continues. the Whip3 dogs aren't an immediate go. I look more at the numbers than the stats early in the baseball season, and usually I don't really bet much MLB until I have 2-3 weeks to work with. I do zero research on the teams, preseason.

[Stabler12]

Thanks again for the detailed analysis, I love to pick your brain a little and draw out a nugget or two. I lost on the Det/LA finals, I was stuck holding a ticket on LA and couldn't bail enough water once Malone got hurt. Mavs choked, but the refs grabbed both their arms and put them in the Heimlich position. Obviously I had Dallas then. Always interesting reminiscing about old bets.

[ATX]

let's just say that I suck right now.

and that will quite possibly change.

maybe, maybe not. per usual.

[ATX]

if you post at EOG, please just stay over there.